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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.